The NFC Championship Game takes place on Sunday on FOX, as the Green Bay Packers visit the San Francisco 49ers. The Packers are coming off a close win last week against the Seahawks, while the 49ers rolled over the Vikings. Green Bay and San Francisco met earlier this season and it was all 49ers, as San Francisco won by a score of 37-8. The 49ers are listed as 7.5-point favorites to win the rematch. Let’s look at Sunday’s game and NFL picks.
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- Date and Time: Sunday, January 19, 2020, 6:40 p.m. ET
- Location: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
- NFL odds at Betcris: 49ers -7.5, 45
- Packers vs. 49ers TV Coverage: FOX
The Packers and 49ers are familiar rivals and they have quite a history in the NFL playoffs, as this will be the 8th time in the last 25 years they will be meeting in the playoffs. The teams met earlier this season and San Francisco won easily, but 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan knows it will be a much different game this time. "We know it will be different," Shanahan said to the media, "That game got away from them early. That's definitely not the team we'll see this week. Everyone knows how good Green Bay is, how good their coaching staff is, how good their players are, how good their quarterback is. ... That game really holds zero relevance to what's going to happen this Sunday."
The Packers were overwhelmed by the San Francisco defensive line in the first meeting and Aaron Rodgers had one of the worst games of his career. "I think there's a lot to learn," Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur said to the media, "First of all, I mean, that's a really good football team. We know we are going to have to be at our absolute best in order to compete with them and you know, I think unfortunately last time for whatever reason, we weren't."
Keep in mind that when a team wins big during the regular season they don’t always repeat that win in the playoffs. In fact, there have been 23 games since the first Super Bowl where a team lost by at least 28 points in the first meeting. The second time they played the team that got blown out came back to win nine times and six other times the game was decided by a touchdown or less. That means in 15 of the 23 meetings the team that was blown out, either won or was extremely competitive in the rematch.
The Packers are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in the series. The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as an underdog. The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff road games. The 49ers are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite.
Looking at the total, the Over is 5-1 in the Packers last 6 playoff road games. The Over is 5-2 in the 49ers last 7 games as a home favorite. The Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
The only game I lost last week in the NFL Divisional round was the game between the Seahawks and Packers that Green Bay was fortunate to win. The Packers have found ways to win this season, with many of the wins being ugly. I still don’t think Green Bay is a championship team and even though I am somewhat concerned about the rematch stat that I pointed out earlier, I will lay the points and take the 49ers on Sunday.