Props betting has become the equal to side and total betting on Super Sunday. As the old adage goes “everybody bets on the Super Bowl.” And that includes a multitude of fantasy sports players that will see the Super Bowl LIV prop betting lines as the land of unlimited opportunity. Consider that there are over 400 prop bets that will be offered on Super Sunday and you get a great understanding as to what the draw is. With that in mind let’s take a look at some of the most popular props that will draw the most action for Super Bowl LIV between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers.
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Props Handicapping Angles
As is the case with betting on sides, name brands such Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes will draw a lot of casual public betting money that will drive up his price. Yet there is also zero value on a losing ticket. To put it another way, sometimes you have to pay for quality. It is worth considering that the public will bet the over on the majority of props. Finally, players on the losing team will often go over the total on their props, especially players on an offense that is playing catchup during the game.
A Tale of Two Quarterbacks
Certainly, Patrick Mahomes is drawing considerable attention from gamblers for the Super Bowl LIV prop betting lines. Mahomes heroics in the Chiefs come from behind wins over the Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans in the AFC playoffs combined with his 2018 NFL Most Valuable Player Award add to his considerable marquee. Mahomes has an over under of 299.5 yards passing, 24.5 pass completions, and 2.5 touchdown passes for the game.
San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo opened at 237.5 for total passing yards, 18.5 pass completions, and 1.5 touchdown passes. Garoppolo has been under 18.5 pass completions in four consecutive games and over 1.5 touchdown passes in just one of his last six games.
Based on recent performances and the offensive styles of the two teams, Mahomes clearly rates the better chance to go over the total in those categories.
Two Elite Tight Ends
George Kittle of the 49ers and Travis Kelce of the Chiefs rate as two of the NFL’s finest tight ends. That being said Kelce has been much more dominant in the playoffs starting with a monster performance against the Texans in the AFC divisional playoff round. Kittle opened at 68.5 yards for his over under in the game with Kelce at 76.5. Not only is Kelce a favorite target of Mahomes but he has greater support with wideouts Sammy Watkins and Tyreek Hill. That tandem forces defenses to play more honest. Opponents simply can’t focus too much on shutting down Kelce. That makes him going over the total a strong possibility.
An interesting prop for total tackles by Daniel Sorenson of the Chiefs may bring value. Samuelson opened at 5.5 on his over under for game tackles. Considering that the safety also serves on KC’s special teams and is their leading tackler in the post season, he merits strong consideration for clearing the total.
Getting His Kicks
Kansas City and Pro Football Hall of Fame legend Jan Stenerud was named with Adam Vinatieri as the two greatest kickers on the NFL 100-Year Team. Harrison Butker has taken Stenerud’s standard to the next level for the Chiefs. Butker posted one of the most dominant seasons of any kicker in history with 34-38 on field goals, which included 16-19 from 40 yards out or longer. With an over under of 7.5 points on such a prolific offensive team, Butker stands a good chance on the over.
San Francisco running back Raheem Mostert ran roughshod over Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game with 220 yards on 29 carries good for four touchdowns. Mostert has an over under of 77.5 yards for Super Bowl LIV. Fans liking the 49ers to cover may take Mostert over the total as a San Francisco win likely means that they were able to control the ball. However, those backing the Chiefs may bet the under as it will mean that the 49ers are having to take to the air to try and catch up. Also keep in mind that Mostert has gone over 77.5 yards rushing in just two of his last 14 games this season.
Super Bowl LIV Prop Picks: Patrick Mahomes over the total for total yards and TD passes, Harrison Butker over the total for points, and Raheem Mostert under the total for rushing yards
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