Looking for a lonshot with a nice payout? There are some talented horses ready to take the track on Saturday in the 145th Run for the Roses. And those thoroughbreds further down the odds board got a boost this week when betting favorite Omaha Beach was scratched due to an entrapped epiglottis, which is a medical term for a breathing abnormality.
We all know who the favorites are at this point. Bob Baffert-trained Game Winner took over the top spot by default after Omaha Beach withdrew, and the legendary trainer with five Kentucky Derby wins on his resume already, has an increased chance of getting his record sixth with two others at the top of the list. However, there is no Justify, last year’s Triple Crown winner, in this race and the field is wide open. So why can’t we see a longshot wear the roses in the winner’s circle.
More than half the field of 20 horses is listed with odds of +2000 or higher, and six of those have odds of +4550 or more. Is there any value in those horses? We’ll analyze a few of them to see if a hefty payout is in the cards.
The 145th edition of the Kentucky Derby will take place on Saturday, May 4, 2019, with a post time of 6:38 p.m. ET from Churchill Downs in Lexington. The race will air live on NBC.
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- Game Winner +521
- Roadster +625
- Tacitus +625
- Improbable +725
- Maximum Security +885
- War of Will +1616
- By My Standards +1616
- Code of Honor +1817
- Tax +2052
- Vekoma +2253
- Win Win Win +2253
- Spinoff +2554
- Haikal +3055
- Gray Magician +4550
- Cutting Humor +4550
- Long Range Toddy +4550
- Country House +5250
- Plus Que Parfait +6050
- Master Fencer +6550
The first ever Japanese bred horse to run the Kentucky Derby, Master Fencer has the longest odds in the field at +6550. The colt survived the trip and has had plenty of time to acclimate to his new surroundings. He has two wins in three starts, but this is a new experience for him and he’s at the bottom of the list for a reason.
Master Fencer has shown the ability to close strong, but he’s also a slow starter, and in this field that will doom him. The international flavor to the race is exciting, but Master Fencer isn’t ready to compete against a strong field, and it doesn’t look like he’ll factor into the outcome at any time on Saturday, so stay away from this longshot.
Several racing experts have singled out Long Range Toddy as a longshot pick at +4550. He dropped down the odds board after a disappointing sixth-place showing at the Arkansas Derby, but he had already amassed enough Derby points to run on the first Saturday in May, so take his effort for what it’s worth.
Prior to his last race, Long Range Toddy won the Rebel Stakes, edging Improbable, and had two other victories while placing among the top three in his first five starts. He didn’t perform well on the sloppy track in Arkansas, but he got his first out of the way and should handle the expected mud better on Saturday.
Cutting Humor is another longshot of note. He held off a late charge from Anothertwistafate to triumph at the Sunland Derby running the 1 1/8 distance in 1:46.94. His track record time at the Sunland Derby was enough to convince trainer Todd Pletcher that Cutting Humor is ready to go.
Win Win Win is looking to do just that that that on Saturday. One of the few horses in the race with a closing style, he will benefit from the additional distance. The key for him is to not fall behind early and avoid congestion. If he’s successful, Win Win Win could live up to his brand.
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