Surging welterweight contender Jorge Masvidal (34-13, 15 KOs, 2 SUBs) will meet Stockton’s Nate Diaz (20-11, 5 KOs, 11 SUBs) at UFC 244 on Saturday, November 2, 2019 at Madison Square Garden in New York, New York. The main card airs live on pay-per-view at 7pm ET.
The UFC odds at Betcris opened with Masvidal as a clear favorite, but let’s break down the fight and get to your best betting picks. Sign Up at Betcris! Live UFC betting at Betcris provides real-time line updates to make hedge plays as needed.
After a brief USADA scare, the BMF title is back up for grabs. Yes, there is a real, actual belt that denotes the totally subjective opinion of who the Baddest Mothefu*ker in the UFC. It was spoken into existence by West Coast Gangster Nate Diaz, who called out Dirty South Gangster Jorge Masvidal after a win over Anthony Pettis. The fans wanted, Dana White’s eyes turned into cartoon dollar signs and boom - a $50,000 belt was forged for a main event matchup this Saturday at Madison Square Garden.
If it feels a bit gimmicky, that’s because it is. But this is the kinda fun stuff that we could use more of. Any hope that this would turn into a legitimate beef between two of the realest dudes in the UFC was quickly squashed - these guys obviously respect each other a lot. But fans know that the BMF title isn’t just a personality contest. It refers to how badass these guys are inside the cage.
Plus, the timing is perfect. Diaz has emerged as one of the UFC’s biggest superstars since a pair of legendary fights with Conor McGregor. This is a guy that gets booked on Jimmy Kimmel. Masvidal’s popularity has never been bigger after 20 years in the fight game - he’s notched two sensational knockouts and dropping one-liner gold in every interview. By calling out Masvidal, Diaz gets a chance to take on the No. 3 welterweight and call his next shot.
- Jorge Masvidal -185
- Nate Diaz +148
- Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -155 / +115
Significant Striking Stats
- Strikes landed per minute: Masvidal 4.11 / Diaz 4.64
- Striking accuracy: Masvidal 48% / Diaz 44%
- Strikes absorbed per minute: Masvidal 4.15 / Diaz 3.69
- Striking defense: Masvidal 67% / Diaz 54%
- Takedown average: Masvidal 1.16 / Diaz 1.17
- Takedown accuracy: Masvidal 51% / Diaz 30%
- Takedown defense: Masvidal 77% / Diaz 45%
- Submission average: Masvidal 0.51 / Diaz 1.43
Nate Diaz has always had the uncanny ability to get inside his opponent’s head, but that likely won’t work against Masvidal. For starters, Gamebred is too smart and experienced to fall for the head games. Second, the Stockton native just doesn’t seem like he wants to go down that route against a dude who got his start fighting in Kimbo Slice’s backyard.
It’s doubtful there’s much grappling in this one - Diaz doesn’t have the offensive wrestling to force Masvidal to the mat. The good news is that the striking battle should be awesome. Both guys are awesome boxers in their own way: Diaz is non-stop pressure, endless cardio and an iron chin. Masvidal is smooth boxing, high fight IQ and the ability to fight any style.
So how does this play out? Online oddsmakers are siding with Masvidal here, and we can see why: he is a chameleon without any weaknesses. Diaz is an awesome fighter, but there is a blueprint to beat him - he is extremely susceptible to leg kicks, and he can’t impose his style against quicker guys who refuse to stand and trade.
UFC Odds Pick: Masvidal to win at -185
In a five-round fight, we have to lean heavy on the favorite. Masvidal is one of the smartest guys in the division, and he knows what’s at stake here: a possible red panty night against Conor McGregor. Eventually he’ll find a way to frustrate Nate and stick to it for the majority of the fight.
UFC Odds Pick: Masvidal to win by decision
Even though Masvidal is racking up the highlight reel knockouts, Diaz’s chin is not of this world. We expect a lot of probing here, as well as a few protracted periods where Diaz is trying to get this to the mat. This one should go to the scorecards.