Lightweight superstar Conor McGregor (21-4, 18 KOs, 1 SUB) will meet veteran Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone (36-13, 10 KOs, 17 SUBs) at UFC 246 on Saturday, January 18, 2020 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10pm ET.
The UFC’s biggest superstar will kick off a new decade: Former two-division champion Conor McGregor meets veteran Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone in the main event of this Saturday’s UFC 246 - the promotion’s first event of 2020.
It’s a matchup where many - fans, media and the UFC - are looking past Cowboy. The consensus here is that this is a tuneup fight for McGregor, meant to get him back in the win column. Cerrone is by no means a scrub, but he’s just good enough to serve as a somewhat significant win while being a winnable matchup for the Irishman. At least, that’s what most people are thinking.
The UFC odds at Betcris follow the sentiment, opening with McGregor as a large -235 favorite in early December. His price has steadily dropped over time, shooting to the -320 range. In all honesty, we wouldn’t be surprised to see him close around -350, with Cowboy entering the fight around +300 on the comeback.
So is it fair to write Cowboy off here, or does this set up an excellent opportunity to cash in a live ‘dog? Also, are there any solid prop bets at Betcris that you should be looking at? Sign Up NOW and let’s take a look at the stats and break it all down. Live UFC betting is available during the fight as well.
- Conor McGregor -350
- Donald Cerrone +260
- Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +450 / -675
Significant Striking Stats
- Strikes landed per minute: McGregor 5.27 / Cerrone 4.34
- Striking accuracy: McGregor 48% / Cerrone 46%
- Strikes absorbed per minute: McGregor 4.43 / Cerrone 4.23
- Striking defense: McGregor 55% / Cerrone 53%
- Takedowns per 15 minutes: McGregor 0.75 / Cerrone 1.21
- Takedown accuracy: McGregor 62% / Cerrone 36%
- Takedown defense: McGregor 70% / Cerrone 73%
- Submission average: McGregor 0 / Cerrone 1.3
UFC Betting Odds Picks
- McGregor to win by TKO/KO at -235
- McGregor to win inside the distance at -250
It’s not just that Cowboy has lost two straight coming into this matchup: he’s lost six of his past 10 and was KO’d in five of those defeats. That’s not a good sign against a dude who can murk fighters with a single shot. The 36-year old Cowboy is not the fighter he used to be, a tad slower, a bit more hesitant and a lot more vulnerable to power punches.
Anybody who watches Cowboy fight can pick up that he really does not handle pressure well, and that is exacerbated against southpaws. Unfortunately for the American, his opponent is a southpaw who thrives when marching down his opponents. It’s possible that this could get real ugly, real quick - we’ve seen McGregor toy with excellent fighters like Eddie Alvarez and we’ve witnessed Cowboy fail to even get started against guys like Darren Till.
However, betting McGregor straight up at Betcris is just too expensive - we recommend you either taking him to win inside the distance or by TKO. McGregor has gone the distance just twice in 25 fights, and his style simply isn’t built to go to the scorecards. While these prices aren’t cheap, they’re certainly much more affordable then his straight up money line - and just slightly riskier.
UFC Odds Pick: Cerrone wins inside the distance +425
This is your hedge play, and covers the chance that Cowboy survives the early onslaught and takes advantage of his opponent’s propensity to fatigue in later rounds. Cowboy is a threat in all areas of the fight, and his submission wrestling could especially become a factor later on.