UFC on ESPN 12 Odds - Dustin Poirier vs. Dan Hooker Betting Picks

Thursday, June 25th, 2020

By Abe Chong
UFC on ESPN 12 Dustin Poirier vs. Dan Hooker

Elite lightweight fighter Dustin Poirier (25-6, 12 KOs, 7 SUBs) will meet a surging Dan “The Hangman” Hooker (20-8, 10 KOs, 7 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN 12 on Saturday, June 27, 2020, at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card airs live at 6 pm ET on ESPN, with a welterweight scrap between knockout artist Mike Perry and submission specialist Mickey Gall serving as the co-main event.

The main card features four fights, with the prelims serving up six contests. Let’s take a closer look at the main event, which has legit Fight of the Year potential.

Dustin Poirier 25-6, 12 KOs, 7 SUBs

Let’s be honest: Poirier could very well be the champion in the UFC’s most loaded division, but he has the misfortune of fighting during the era of an all-time great. It’s not The Diamond’s fault that he got smothered by Khabib Nurmagomedov, because the champ has done that to everybody. The road that Poirier took to get to a title bid in the first place is just nuts: he beat Anthony Pettis, Justin Gaethje, Eddie Alvarez, and Max Holloway. I’m not sure if anyone else but the champ could beat those fighters in a row.

UFC Fights

Since making his octagon debut at 21, Dustin has developed into one of the most experienced, well-balanced fighters in the UFC. He’s comfortable in every phase of the fight, smart enough to make adjustments and talented enough to impose his style. We’ve seen him in brilliant grappling exchanges and all-out firefights - and he’s earned a Fight of the Year along the way. He does his best work on the feet, where he slugs foes into submission with a never-ending stream of powerful hooks. While his defense wanes at times, Poirier’s got fast hands, great feet, and excellent timing - plus the guts to trade with anybody.

Dan “The Hangman” Hooker (20-8, 10 KOs, 7 SUBs)

It’s time to see if The Hangman is a legitimate title contender. Because anyone that beats Poirier right now can justifiably demand a title shot and not sound ridiculous. It took an 8-1 streak to get here, but wins over Gilbert Burns, James Vick, Al Iaquinta, and Paul Felder are all proof that The Hangman is ready for a chance to get a signature win - that’s an excellent stretch of ranked fighters. The only blemish during this time was a brutal loss to Edson Barboza (which was a horrible style matchup for Hooker).

A lot of you are convinced that Hooker should have lost his last outing - a contentious split decision against Paul Felder. We get it, but it really could have gone either way. The bottom line here is that Hooker has quietly become a lethally violent dude in a lightweight division brimming with monsters. Moving up from featherweight saved his career: he’s developed into a relentless marchdown fighter who thrashes dudes with all weight striking points. Gotta love a hyper-aggressive Muay Thai stylist.

Striking Stats

  • Strikes landed per minute: Poirier 5.51 / Hooker 4.76
  • Striking accuracy: Poirier 49% / Hooker 45%
  • Strikes absorbed per minute: Poirier 3.97 / Hooker 4.67
  • Defense: Poirier 56% / Hooker 55%

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Grappling Stats

  • Takedown average: Poirier 1.55 / Hooker 0.43
  • Takedown accuracy: Poirier 37% / Hooker 28%
  • Takedowns defended: Poirier 61% / Hooker 78%
  • Submission average: Poirier 1.2 / Hooker 0.3

UFC Picks

The UFC odds at Betcris have Poirier as a major -180 favorite, with Hooker at +143 on the comeback. We can’t argue against that - this is a very favorable matchup for The Diamond. We see Hooker and Holloway as similar fighters: tall, rangy dudes that rely on pressure and output to bully their opponents. That plays right into Poirier’s hands, as he thrives off launching powerful counters that pile up damage. Hooker is going to get hit a lot en route to dropping the match. At this price, we’d recommend a sizable bet.

How to Bet

Bet on UFC odds, with money lines, victory bets, prop bets, round totals and more from Betcris. Live UFC betting at the online sportsbook even lets you bet on updated lines during the fight.

UFC on ESPN: Poirier vs. Hooker fights

UFC on ESPN Fights
Main Card (ESPN+)
Dustin Poirier vs. Dan Hooker - Lightweight
Mike Perry vs. Mickey Gall - Welterweight
Gian Villante vs. Maurice Greene - Heavyweight
Preliminary card (ESPN+)
Luis Peña vs. Khama Worthy - Lightweight
Philipe Lins vs. Tanner Boser - Heavyweight
Sean Woodson vs. Kyle Nelson - Catchweight (150 lb)

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