Dustin Poirier is a slight favorite against Justin Gaethje at UFC on FOX 29 on Saturday in Arizona. Poirier has lost just once since 2014 and he could be in line for a title shot if he can get past Gaethje on Saturday. This fight is one of four on the main card on FOX. The other three bouts have Alex Oliveira favored against Carlos Condit; Israel Adesanya favored against Marvin Vettori and Cortney Casey a slight favorite against Michelle Waterson. There are 10 preliminary bouts, with four on FOX and six on UFC Fight Pass. Let’s look at the event with a focus on Poirier vs. Gaethje and UFC picks.
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Dustin Poirier -145 vs. Justin Gaethje
Poirier is ranked as the No. 5 UFC lightweight, while Gaethje is ranked No. 6. Poirier comes into this bout with a record of 22-5 with half of his wins coming by knockout. He is coming off a TKO win against Anthony Pettis last November. Six of the last eight wins for Poirier have come by knockout.
Gaethje has gone 18-1 in his career with almost all of his wins coming by knockout. He is coming off the first loss of his career, as he was beaten by Eddie Alvarez last December. It is all about striking for Gaethje who has won 12 of his last 13 fights by knockout.
Poirier said to MMAJunkie.com that he is not sure what to expect out of Gaethje. “We don’t know how he’s going to react after his first loss. When he’s knocking everybody out and making everybody quit and beating everybody up, he’s the same guy every fight. He comes in and is brawling and being crazy and taking big risks and leaving it all out there. We’ll see what happens. We do know he has great wrestling and after his first loss he could be changing his mind about his fighting style. He could be maturing and thinking, ‘I won’t be doing this long if I keep fighting like this.’ But we’re preparing for anything.”
This should be an excellent main event, as both Poirier and Gaethje are known for their striking. I can’t see either of these two trying to take this fight to the mat, so it should be exciting for as long as it lasts. The price on the fight going under the total is high, as it is about 4-1, but I can’t see this fight going the distance, as both of these fighters simply have too much power and a fighting style that should result in a knockout one way or another. I will take the rounds to go under the total.
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UFC on FOX 29 takes place on Saturday, April 14, 2018 at Gila River Arena in Glendale, Arizona, with a lightweight match between Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje as the event headliner. There are four fights on the main card on FOX and 10 on the preliminary card with four on FOX and six on UFC Fight Pass.
Main Card (FOX)
Lightweight – Dustin Poirier -145 vs. Justin Gaethje
Welterweight – Alex Oliveira -210 vs. Carlos Condit
Middleweight – Israel Adesanya -260 vs. Marvin Vettori
Women’s Strawweight – Cortney Casey -125 vs. Michelle Waterson
Preliminary Card (FOX)
Middleweight – Antonio Carlos Junior -270 vs. Tim Boetsch
Welterweight – Muslim Salikhov -165 vs. Ricky Rainey
Flyweight – Wilson Reis -140 vs. John Moraga
Middleweight – Brad Tavares -140 vs. Krzysztof Jotko
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)
Lightweight – Gilbert Burns -500 vs. Dan Moret
Women’s Flyweight – Shana Dobson -115 vs. Lauren Mueller
Welterweight – Dhiego Lima -115 vs. Yushin Okami
Heavyweight – Arjan Bhullar -365 vs. Adam Wieczorek
Bantamweight – Matthew Lopez -130 vs. Alejandro Perez
Bantamweight – Luke Sanders -420 vs. Patrick Williams
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