There has been some separation in the race to finish fourth in La Liga. The top three spots have been virtually decided, leaving just one spot in next year’s Champions League left for Spain. Alaves have completely fallen off the pace, leaving Sevilla and Getafe in pole position and Valencia not too far behind. With Sevilla and Getafe squaring off this Sunday, we will have further delineation in the race for fourth.
- April 19
- Deportivo Alaves -0.5 vs. Real Valladolid, O/U 2
Observers expected Alaves to fall back somewhat as their advanced metrics did not suggest a top four finish, but instead the fall has been precipitous and the club has gone from Champions League contender to fighting for a spot in Europa League in less than a month’s time. Alaves are in eighth place in the table and have just one point from their last four matches. They have netted just two goals in those four matches, and their inability to score has hurt. Valladolid have the worst offense in La Liga by far though, and Valladolid’s 26 goals are six less than the next lowest-scoring team in La Liga.
- April 20
- Celta Vigo -0.5 vs. Girona FC, O/U 2.5 and 3
- SD Eibar PK and +0.5 vs. Atletico Madrid, O/U 2 and 2.5
- Rayo Vallecano PK and -0.5 vs. SD Huesca, O/U 2.5 and 3
- FC Barcelona -1.5 and -2 vs. Real Sociedad, O/U 3.5
Girona have been most comfortable on the road, as they have the worst home record in La Liga by a wide margin. They were the only home team to lose last week, but they have to like their chances against a Celta Vigo side that is just one point clear of the relegation zone. Girona have lost their last four matches though.
Eibar are only slight underdogs against second-place Atletico Madrid this week. They are somewhat unfortunate to be in 13th place in the table with just a -2 goal differential, and it feels like they will finish right in the middle of the table with just five points separating them from eighth place Alaves. Atletico might be without Diego Costa for the rest of the season as punishment for insulting a referee a couple weeks ago.
Three points would be huge for either Huesca or Rayo Vallecano this weekend. These two teams are at the bottom of the table, and a win for either would narrow the gap to safety. A loss for Huesca would all but guarantee relegation, as they would be five points behind 19th place. Barca played a team full of inexperienced players last week against Huesca and settled for a 0-0 draw. The Blaugrana have their sights set on the Champions League, but they are likely to play more starters this week with more rest after their tilt with Manchester United on Tuesday.
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- April 21
- UD Levante PK and -0.5 vs. Espanyol Barcelona, O/U 3
- Getafe CF PK and +0.5 vs. Sevilla FC, O/U 2 and 2.5
- Real Madrid -1 and -1.5 vs. Athletic Bilbao, O/U 3 and 3.5
- Villarreal CF -0.5 vs. CD Leganes, O/U 2.5
- Real Betis Balompie PK -101 vs. Valencia CF, O/U 2.5
The match between Getafe and Sevilla is going to be huge. Sevilla are currently one point ahead of Getafe in the standings, and although Getafe are hosting this match, they are underdogs per the oddsmakers. Sevilla have won five of their last six matches coming into Sunday’s game.
Villarreal have pulled themselves out of the relegation zone, and they have now won three of their last six matches. The Yellow Submarine have never seemed likely to be relegated with just a -5 goal differential, and it looks like they might finally push themselves to safety for good.
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