The 2025 Gold Cup is nearing its conclusion, and one of the most intriguing duels of the semifinals will be the one between the United States and Guatemala on Wednesday, July 2 at Energizer Park in St. Louis. While the locals come in as favorites due to their history, squad and location, Guatemala will be the surprise package of the tournament, full of heart and with a confidence that has been growing match by match. The match promises intensity, goals and a thrilling atmosphere.
Two Different Paths to the Semifinals
Both teams have had very different journeys in this edition of the Gold Cup. On the one hand, the United States has lived up to expectations, although not without its share of upsets. On the other, Guatemala has surprised the continent with a historic campaign.
The United States kicked off the Gold Cup after a series of worrying results in previous friendlies. Losses to Turkey and Switzerland had set off alarm bells. However, the team showed a better side in the group stage, winning three matches that catapulted them to the quarterfinals. There, Costa Rica tested their mettle and only a penalty shootout allowed the home side to advance. Experience and order were key to sustain the pressure.
Guatemala, on the other hand, has been pure spirit. They qualified from a hard-fought group stage and reached the semifinals with a heroic performance against Canada. They were able to take advantage of the North Americans' numerical inferiority, equalized the score and won from eleven penalty kicks. It is their first semi-final since 1996, and that says a lot about the merit of their current campaign. Without their first-choice goalkeeper, but in high spirits, Guatemala has nothing to lose.
United States, Under Pressure from Favorites
The label of favorite is not always a comfortable one. In this case, it falls entirely on the shoulders of the home team.
The United States has a deeper squad, accustomed to high-demanding matches. The presence of experienced players, the home advantage and the recent track record in head-to-head matches give them an advantage. But the defensive errors against Costa Rica left doubts. Pochettino's team has shown clear offensive intent, but at times they have looked vulnerable at the back.
A key statistic is that the Americans have scored in all of their matches in the tournament, but have also conceded goals in their two most recent matches. In fact, the "over 2.5 goals" trend has held true in four of their last five matches. This dynamic reinforces the idea that the match against Guatemala could be a high-scoring affair.
In addition, the team reports no injuries or suspensions. All the called-up players are available to the coach, which gives the team room to adjust if the match gets complicated.
Guatemala, the Illusion That Does Not Give Up
Few believed that Guatemala would go this far. And that is precisely what makes them dangerous.
The Chapin national team has grown in confidence and performance as the games have gone by. Players such as Rubio Rubín and Óscar Santis have been key, and although starting goalkeeper Nicholas Hagen was sidelined due to injury, young Kenderson Navarro did a great job against Canada. The team has shown order, grit and conviction. They do not play beautifully, but they play with their soul.
Guatemala has covered the +1.5 handicap in all of its matches in this Gold Cup, and has scored in three of the four games played. Their biggest weakness remains their defense, especially when pressed out wide or attacked on the flanks, something the U.S. will surely look to exploit.
Tactical Keys and Comparison
Before going into the forecast, it is useful to look at some statistics and how they could influence the development of the game:
| Equipment | Possession Prom. | Goals scored | Goals against | Shots on goal per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 61 % | 11 | 4 | 6.8 |
| Guatemala | 47 % | 6 | 5 | 3.2 |
Who will lift the trophy in England? 🏴 🎾
Djokovic is looking to catch Federer as the
top winner, but Alcaraz wants to make it 3 crowns in a row. 🇷🇸 💥🧐Do you already have your favorite?
Make your play and get paid quickly when you win 🔝.
➡️ https://t.co/HCS0draMpV pic.twitter.com/yp7GIZdjVo
- Betcris (@Betcris) June 30, 2025
Outstanding trends:
Both teams have scored in 3 of their 4 games.
Guatemala has conceded goals in every game.
The United States averages more corners per game (7.2 vs. 4.1).
Guatemala has seen at least 4 cards in 3 games in a row.
Prediction United States vs Guatemala: El Milagro continues?
History is on the side of the United States, and so is the overall performance. Guatemala has done well, but facing a higher-ranked team in a full stadium seems too much of a challenge.
Likely outcome:
United States 3 - 1 Guatemala
The Chapines will be able to compete, and they will certainly not leave without scoring. But in the end, the greater experience and individual weight will make the difference.
Recommended Bets
Here are some solid options to consider:
Both teams score: Guatemala has scored against demanding opponents and the United States often leaves space.
More than 2.5 goals: Due to the offensive proposal of both teams, this is a very likely scenario.
Handicap Guatemala +1.5: They have been able to stay in the game, even against superior teams.
Conclusion: Illusion Resists, But Logic Weighs In
Guatemala has already made history. Their role in this Gold Cup will go down as one of the most pleasant surprises of the tournament. However, the United States is a step up and, playing at home, has everything it needs to advance to the final. Even so, it will not be a comfortable victory. The Chapines will give nothing away. It will be an intense semifinal, with goals, emotions and a fair winner.
